Le CSIRO australien a publié un rapport “Our Future World: An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios”, librement téléchargeable sur leur site.
Le CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) est l’agence nationale de la science officielle australienne. Elle se définit comme “une des plus grandes et plus diversifiées agence de recherche du monde”.
Ce rapport présente 5 “megatrends” et 8 “megashocks”, qui sont des risques globaux. Ces tendances et risques “redéfiniront la manière de vivre dans le monde”, mais sont orientés pour avoir un sens du point de vue de la recherche australienne.
Les 5 “megatrends” sont :
- More from less. “This relates to the world’s depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources through economic and population growth. Coming decades will see a focus on resource use efficiency”.
- A personal touch. ” Growth of the services sector of western economies is being followed by a second wave of innovation aimed at tailoring and targeting services”.
- Divergent demographics. “The populations of OECD countries are ageing and experiencing lifestyle and diet related health problems. At the same time there are high fertility rates and problems of not enough food for millions in poor countries”.
- On the move. “People are changing jobs and careers more often, moving house more often, commuting further to work and travelling around the world more often”.
- i World. “Everything in the natural world will have a digital counterpart. Computing power and memory storage are improving rapidly. Many more devices are getting connected to the internet”.
et les 8 “megashocks” :
- “asset price collapse”
- “slowing Chinese economy”
- “oil and gas price spikes”
- “extreme climate change related weather”
- “pandemic”
- “biodiversity loss”
- “terrorism”
- “nanotechnology risks”.
